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From the title it is reasonable to expect an
article advising Kenyans on what policies and considerations they should
gauge the various candidates with.
Instead, Mutua used the article solely to paint an
apocalyptic picture for Kenya should we elect Uhuru Kenyatta and
William Ruto.
He paints a doomsday scenario that would be right
at home in Mayan prophesies. In his vision for Kenya’s future, an
economy that is 95 per cent locally financed collapses as the West
withdraws its 5 per cent aid.
He predicts that foreign embassies would close
down and tourists would shun Kenya because the country has freely and
democratically elected to high office two individuals who are currently
facing trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Let us look at the facts dispassionately. The West
is largely in recession with only a few of its nations sustaining even
minimal growth.
In spite of this Prof Mutua argues that the West
would levy financial sanctions on Kenya that would prevent their
companies from trading with Kenyan entities or receiving profits or
dividends from local subsidiaries. That is patently absurd.
The most profitable branch of a large
international banking group is the Kenyan unit. Prof Mutua would have us
believe that the United Kingdom would levy sanctions that would prevent
it from repatriating much-needed profits.
In such a scenario these profits would be retained
in Kenya for investment locally as loans at lower interest rates rather
than going back to Britain to steady an economy teetering on the edge
of recession.
Dire situation
The winner in this scenario is Kenya. Further yet,
significant investments in telecommunications, horticulture, insurance
and industrial machinery by UK companies would be rendered worthless.
Given the dire economic situation in Europe, how likely is that?
Prof Mutua warns that Kenyan exports such as tea and coffee would be banned were Kenyatta and Ruto to be democratically elected.
Forgetting for one moment that this would be the
most unusual sanctions regime ever imposed considering that even
Zimbabwe and Sudan (which he cites as examples of where Kenya would be)
are still allowed to export their staple products, what would be the net
effect of banning Kenyan tea and coffee?
Well, since the international supply cannot
compensate for the shortfall, tea and coffee prices in the West would
sky-rocket. Leading outlets in those countries would have to slash jobs
and close down resulting in a worsening of an already bleak economic
position.
Cooperating with ICC
Would their governments embark on economic suicide
simply to prove a point related to a conflict that many of their
citizens have never even heard of?
How would they justify destroying some of their
own economic sectors because suspects, not even convicted, have been
democratically elected to state positions, and are still cooperating
with the ICC?
Prof Mutua also forgets to mention that the US
would never participate in the sanctions he is forecasting. Sanctions
are levied by Congress, and with a Republican controlled House and a
close minority in the Senate, there is no chance that the avowed
opponents of the ICC would support such measures.
It is worth noting that President Obama has never attempted to
sign the Rome Statute which his predecessor George W. Bush unsigned in
his first official act as president.
The ICC is maligned in America and the Democrat
administration will not waste the precious little foreign affairs
capital it has left after the Benghazi debacles on propping up the
deeply unpopular global court in the face of what is likely to be fierce
opposition from the Republicans.
The international community will not implement the
measures that scare-mongers like Mutua like to peddle. No country has
come out and stated that it will do so.
The unofficial comments by some members of the
diplomatic corps are meant to influence the elections in favour of a
certain candidate perceived by them as “West-friendly”. They know they
need Kenya economically, strategically and militarily.
There are numerous examples of war crimes suspects
being allowed to vie for and hold senior government positions even as
their trials proceed.
Former Kosovo prime minister Ramush Haradinaj was
allowed to continue serving in government by the International Criminal
Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) because, like Mr Kenyatta and
Mr Ruto, he was cooperating fully with the court.
This is the internationally accepted practice which a lawyer of Prof Mutua’s standing no doubt knows.
That he omits to mention this speaks volumes for his motivation and bias.
His political leanings are well known. He should
tell Kenyans the truth; the sky will not collapse on our heads if and
when we elect Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
Jasper Mbiuki is an advocate and CEO of The First Commodity House. jasper@justicembiuki.com
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